Ernesto is strengthening as it plows through Caribbean islands. Here’s where it could go next and how strong it could get. | CNN (2024)

CNN

Tropical Storm Ernesto is steadily growing stronger as it slams the northern Caribbean with heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas Tuesday, lashing the Virgin Islands and heading toward Puerto Rico.

Hurricane watches were in effect for the US and British Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra, as forecasters grew more concerned Ernesto could rapidly intensify into a dangerous hurricane thanks to very warm ocean water.

“Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico,” the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday evening.

Previously, it was forecast to reach hurricane-strength later during the day on Wednesday.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds increased by 25 mph to 65 mph over a 12-hour period from Tuesday morning to Tuesday evening. In order to meet the definition of rapid intensification, storms have to gain at least 35 mph of strength over a 24-hour period.

Ernesto’s center was moving over the Virgin Islands on Tuesday evening after tracking near or over Guadeloupe early Tuesday. It’s been on a collision course with the region since forming early Monday evening.

US National Weather Service meteorologists issued a flash flood warning for St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands until 4 a.m.

“Doppler radar indicated southern rainbands from Tropical Storm Ernesto producing heavy rain across the warned area,” the weather service said late Tuesday. “Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.”

Tropical storm-force winds extended up to 115 miles from Ernesto’s center and are delivering gusty winds to much of the region. A 65 mph gust at Saint Barthélemy – known commonly as St. Bart’s – occurred when Ernesto was about 100 miles away.

Ernesto’s wind and rain will spread over more of the region overnight Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, including the US and British Virgin Islands. Ernesto’s strong wind gusts are capable of damaging some structures and taking down trees and power lines.

Drenching, potentially flooding rainfall looks to be the most significant threat over parts of the Caribbean this week. Heavy rain will persist for much of the Leeward Islands through Tuesday night but wet weather will linger into Wednesday.

A deluge of rain will begin for the US and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening and reach Puerto Rico Tuesday night. The heaviest rain should cease over these areas late Wednesday.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches will be widespread, with up to 10 inches possible in parts of Puerto Rico. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible as a result, especially in the higher terrain areas of eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Ernesto is strengthening as it plows through Caribbean islands. Here’s where it could go next and how strong it could get. | CNN (1)

Tropical storm-force windswill also pound areas within Ernesto’s path through at least Wednesday night. These winds will continue to create dangerous seas andup to 3 feet of storm surge for many islands in the region.

The combination of rain and wind could cause issues for Puerto Rico’svulnerable electrical infrastructure.

Puerto Rico officials activated the National Guard, canceled classes in public schools and warned Ernesto would cause widespread power outages given the fragile state of Puerto Rico’s power grid, the Associated Press reported. Crews are still rebuilding the grid after Hurricane Maria struck the island in September 2017 as a Category 4 storm.

“That’s a reality,” Juan Saca, president of Luma Energy, a private company that operates the transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico, told the AP.

Preparations need to be finalized before the storm arrives, Jaclyn Rothenberg, FEMA’s Public Affairs Director, urged Tuesday.

“The people of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are no strangers to storms,” Rothenburg told CNN. “They know how to prepare, but I know that there also are a lot of travelers – people that are visiting the islands during the summer for fun.”

Ernesto is strengthening as it plows through Caribbean islands. Here’s where it could go next and how strong it could get. | CNN (2)

Cars drive down a flooded road following heavy rains in the town of Basse-Terre, on the French Caribbean island of Guadeloupe, on August 13, 2024.

With power outages a possibility, it’s important to have non-perishable food on hand, charge up any electronic devices and make a plan to keep medications that need refrigeration cool.

“It’s really important that people aren’t complacent, that they are taking the storm seriously and that they’re preparing for the impact,” Rothenberg said.

A gradual turn to the north is expected to begin Wednesday and pull Ernesto away from the Caribbean into the open Atlantic. Once over open water, Ernesto will strengthen even further.

How strong Ernesto gets will depend heavily onvery warmocean water and how potent storm-disrupting upper level winds become over the region. It’s possible Ernesto will become a major hurricane – Category 3 strength or greater – late this week.

But Ernesto’s track could shift depending on a number of factors, including when it is pulled northward. A later turn would mean the storm would impact areas farther west like Hispaniola or the southern Bahamas.

Ernesto could be a powerful hurricane by the weekend asit approaches Bermuda. It’s too early to know exactly how close Ernesto will come to Bermuda and how much rain and wind it’ll bring.

The island is expecting to see heavy rain from another weather system in the next few days. “Residents need to prepare now before conditions worsen. Time is of the essence,” Minister of National Security Michael Weeks said Tuesday.

Ernesto will have wide-reaching impacts later this week and this weekend despite a track somewhere over the open Atlantic.

The storm will churn up seas hundreds of miles away and could create dangerous rip currents for the US East Coast, the Bahamas and parts of the Caribbean into early next week.

With Ernesto bearing down on US territories, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster fund is in a deficit. It’s the second year in a row the fund has been depleted before the peak of hurricane season.

“This is, without a doubt, because of the increase in extremeweatherevents caused byclimatechange,” Rothenberg, the agency’s spokesperson, told CNN.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell shifted the agency into what’s known as immediate needs funding on August 7, Rothenberg told CNN. The agency is waiting for Congress to pass a $9 billion supplemental funding request to replenish the fund, but the House and Senate are in recess until September. It’s unclear when lawmakers will address the fund after they return.

Ernesto is strengthening as it plows through Caribbean islands. Here’s where it could go next and how strong it could get. | CNN (3)

Heavy rainfall following tropical storm Ernesto had Meteo-France place the French Caribbean island of Guadeloupe on orange alert.

Rothenberg stressed FEMA has enough resources to respond to impending disasters like Ernesto.

FEMA will continue to fund “search and rescue operations, being able to bring in equipment, generators, things like that,” Rothenberg told CNN, adding, “I don’t want the people of Puerto Rico and USVI to be worried about this at all.”

But on pause will be responses like long-term recovery from previous disasters, of which there’s no shortage. Through July, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported the US experienced 19 separateweatherandclimatedisasters, with damage exceeding $1 billion – the second-highest amount for the first seven months of the year. It falls just behind a record set in 2023.

The NOAA tally doesn’t include devastating flooding fromHurricaneDebby, which made landfall earlier this month.

CNN Meteorologists Taylor Ward and Robert Shackelford contributed to this report.

Ernesto is strengthening as it plows through Caribbean islands. Here’s where it could go next and how strong it could get. | CNN (2024)

FAQs

How strong is Tropical Storm Ernesto? ›

It was traveling west-northwestward at 17 mph and packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Ernesto was forecast to become a hurricane Wednesday north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. To reach hurricane status, Ernesto would need to meet or exceed maximum sustained winds of 74 mph.

Did Ernesto hit the Virgin Islands? ›

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Ernesto to a hurricane Wednesday after flooding rainfall and strong winds left hundreds of thousands without power in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

What is the hurricane Ernesto path? ›

For the time being, Ernesto remained about 805 miles south-southwest of the British island territory. The storm's forecast track showed its center continuing to move away from Puerto Rico Wednesday, before tracking across the western Atlantic for several days and nearing Bermuda on Friday and Saturday.

Will Hurricane Ernesto hit the Bahamas? ›

Surf: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today.

Where is Hurricane Ernesto in 2024? ›

Ernesto, now a Category 1 hurricane, was located 605 miles south southwest of Bermuda with sustained winds of 85 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center's 8 a.m. update.

Will Ernesto hit FL? ›

While Ernesto isn't expected to hit the mainland U.S., authorities have warned of potentially dangerous beach conditions — such as rip currents and rough surf — along the nation's Atlantic coast as the storm moves by.

Is Ernesto hitting Bermuda? ›

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves," the hurricane center added. "Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding."

Will Hurricane Ernesto hit New York? ›

How will Hurricane Ernesto impact NYC area? Back in the tri-state, we are not expecting to see any huge impacts from Ernesto; the storm is staying far offshore. The one area where we expect to see some peripheral impacts from Ernesto is the beach.

How long did Hurricane Ernesto last? ›

Hurricane Ernesto (2006)
Ernesto at peak intensity in the Caribbean Sea on August 27
Meteorological history
FormedAugust 24, 2006
DissipatedSeptember 1, 2006
Category 1 hurricane
9 more rows

What category is Ernesto? ›

Ernesto, which grew into a category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, is continuing to strengthen with gusts of up to 85mph (140km/h) heading further north towards Bermuda, where it is expected to make landfall on Friday.

What storm hit Puerto Rico? ›

Hurricane Ernesto was heading toward Bermuda on Thursday, after its winds knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people and dumped torrential rain on Puerto Rico.

What category hurricane is Ernesto? ›

Ernesto, which grew into a category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, is continuing to strengthen with gusts of up to 85mph (140km/h) heading further north towards Bermuda, where it is expected to make landfall on Friday.

How much damage did Hurricane Ernesto cause? ›

Hurricane Ernesto (2006)
Meteorological history
Lowest pressure985 mbar (hPa); 29.09 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities11
Damage$500 million (2006 USD)
9 more rows

How strong was hurricane Dennis? ›

What were the top 3 strongest hurricanes? ›

Most intense by minimum barometric pressure
Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
HurricaneSeasonBy peak pressure
Allen1980899
Camille1969900
Katrina2005
5 more rows

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: Chrissy Homenick

Last Updated:

Views: 6450

Rating: 4.3 / 5 (74 voted)

Reviews: 89% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Chrissy Homenick

Birthday: 2001-10-22

Address: 611 Kuhn Oval, Feltonbury, NY 02783-3818

Phone: +96619177651654

Job: Mining Representative

Hobby: amateur radio, Sculling, Knife making, Gardening, Watching movies, Gunsmithing, Video gaming

Introduction: My name is Chrissy Homenick, I am a tender, funny, determined, tender, glorious, fancy, enthusiastic person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.